Merged analysis comparing current weights, automated-world projections, cost data, and 2024 → 2025 trends.
| # | Parameter | Current Weight | Automated Weight | Cost / Savings Data | Trend (2024 > 2025) | Automated World Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Proximity to Customer Market | ~18% | ~25%+ | Mexico > US: 3-5 days truck vs 15-50 days sea from Asia. Shorter lead times cut inventory carrying costs 20-40%. | Surging #1 cited factor in Q1 2025 (412 mentions, was #3 in 2024) |
With labor equalized, shipping cost/speed becomes the dominant variable. |
| 2 | Government Incentives & Tax | ~17% | ~10% | US state incentive programs doubled from 940 (1999) to 1,934 (2015). Includes tax credits, grants, sales tax exemptions, property tax abatements, training reimbursements. | Falling sharply Down 54% in citations Q1 2025 vs 2024 as Biden-era subsidies expire. |
Still matters but less decisive when the main cost drivers shift. |
| 3 | Skilled Workforce Availability | ~13% | ~5% | Turnover costs: $7,800-$11,900 per exit. 200-employee plant loses $437K-$664K/yr to turnover alone. US has 1.7M annual shortfall in skilled trades. | Stable Persistently top-3 across all surveys (90%+ of execs cite it). |
Need fewer people, but the ones you need are highly specialized (robotics, AI). |
| 4 | Labor Costs | ~12% | ~2% | Benefits add 30-38% on top of base wage. Direct labor = ~23% of total manufacturing cost. Mexico fully loaded: $6-8/hr (border zones ~50% higher). | Declining Relative importance decreasing as automation increases. |
Robots don't need wages. Remaining cost is maintenance techs. |
| 5 | Transportation Infrastructure | ~12% | ~15% | Insurance/code differences add 3-4% to project costs across state lines. Poor infra = months of delay. Post-pandemic construction: 25-50% more expensive. | Doubling Mentions 2x from 2024 to Q1 2025 (283 mentions). |
Power grid capacity and logistics become even more critical. |
| 6 | Supply Chain Resilience / Risk | ~8% | — | Total cost of ownership analysis: 32% of Chinese imports already more expensive than US sourcing when you add duty, freight, carrying costs, inventory. Add 15% tariff > 46%. | Rising Pandemic + geopolitics made this permanent. |
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| 7 | Tariffs & Trade Policy | ~7% | ~15%+ | US effective tariff on EM exports: ~20% (2025) vs ~4% pre-2025. USMCA requires 75% regional content for autos. | Exploding +454% in citations Q1 2025 vs 2024. |
No labor arbitrage means tariffs become the primary reason to produce offshore. If tariffs neutralize that, everything comes home. |
| 8 | Energy & Utility Costs | ~4% | ~10-15% | 50% drop in nat gas prices (2007-2012) raised mfg employment only 0.6%. Energy-intensive sectors (aluminum, batteries) are the exception: Tennessee chosen partly for 4th-lowest industrial electricity rate. | Stable Most sectors not very sensitive. Willingness to pay premium for green energy growing. |
Robots run on electricity. Energy becomes a much larger % of opex. |
| 9 | Raw Material / Supplier Proximity | ~3% | — | Dominant for bulk/low-value materials (paper mills near forests, canneries near farms). Rated highest weight in academic Factor Rating Method studies. | Stable Industry-dependent. Less relevant for high-value/modular supply chains. |
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| 10 | Real Estate & Construction Costs | ~2% | ~5% | Rural vs metro: massive spread. Greenfield vs brownfield is the key choice. Factory builds typically run 20-30% over budget (McKinsey). $1B facility = tens to hundreds of $M in overrun risk. | Stable Post-pandemic volatility persists. |
Automated facilities need different footprints (fewer parking lots, more power infrastructure). |
Sources: Reshoring Initiative 2024-2025, MassEcon/UMass Donahue Institute, McKinsey factory building research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Area Development Corporate Survey, academic Factor Rating Method studies.